Turkish inflation could end 2021 at 17.63%, according to forecasts


Turkey’s year-end inflation forecast was raised to 17.63% from earlier expectations of 16.74%, according to a poll on Friday.

The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) released its survey of market participants for October, which shows that inflation continues to deteriorate.

The October survey found that the inflation forecast was 13.91% after the next 12-month period, while the forecast was 12.94% in the previous survey.

While the inflation expectation after the next 24-month period was 10.71% in the previous survey, it was recorded at 11.27% in the October survey.

Consumer price inflation in Turkey rose slightly less than expected to 19.58% in September, the highest since March 2019.

The expectation of survey participants for the end-of-month key rate was 17.63%. It was 19% in the previous survey.

After headline inflation exceeded the policy rate in August, the central bank began to focus on core “C” inflation and then cut its policy rate by 100 basis points to 18%. The “C” measure also rose to 16.98% in September.

The Turkish lira is expected to fall further against the US dollar at the end of the year. According to the survey, the dollar / lira exchange rate at the end of the year stood at 9.22, against 8.92.

The exchange rate forecast for the next 12 months became 10.01, recording for the first time in double digits.

The survey revealed an expectation of 4.2% growth.

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