2022 Wheat Market Forecast: Prices Stabilize After 2021 Gains

IndexBox, Inc.

In 2022, wheat price growth is expected to slow with robust supply and lower feed grain demand in the US and EU. World wheat production is expected to remain at the 2021 level of approx. 777 million tons.

LOS ANGELES, Feb. 14 12, 2022 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — In 2022, rising wheat prices will be contained by stable global production and lower demand for feed grains in the United States and the EU, according to a new report by IndexBox. In 2021, the average export price of U.S. Soft Red Winter wheat delivered to the U.S. Gulf port increased 24% year-over-year to $282 per tonne. This year, soft wheat prices should stabilize at the previous year’s level.

According to IndexBox estimates based on USDA and World Bank data, global wheat production is expected to remain at 777 million tonnes in 2022, remaining virtually unchanged from the previous year’s figures. Higher productions are expected in Argentina, Australia, Brazil, China, Egypt, EU, India, Pakistan, Ukraine and UK, while production in Russia, Canada, in Kazakhstan and Turkey is expected to decrease. Harvests in Iran, Iraq and Syria are expected to fall sharply due to drought, which will force these countries to sharply increase their wheat imports.

World wheat exports

Global wheat exports were estimated at 199 million tonnes in 2020, up 13% from the previous year’s figure. In value, supplies rose sharply to $45.3 billion.

Shipments from the top five wheat exporters, namely Russia, the United States, Canada, France and Ukraine, accounted for more than half of global supplies. Australia (10 million tons) ranks second in terms of total exports with a share of 5.2%, followed by Argentina (5.1%) and Germany (4.7%). ). The following exporters – Kazakhstan (5.4 million tons), Poland (4.7 million tons), Romania (4.3 million tons), Lithuania (4 million tons) and Bulgaria (3.2 million tons ) – together accounted for 11% of the total volume.

In terms of value, Russia ($7.9 billion), the United States ($6.3 billion) and Canada ($6.3 billion) were the countries with the highest export levels. high in 2020, with a combined share of 45% of global supplies. These countries were followed by France, Ukraine, Australia, Germany, Argentina, Kazakhstan, Poland, Romania, Lithuania and Bulgaria, which accounted for an additional 44%.

Main wheat importers

The purchases of the top twelve wheat importers, namely Indonesia, Turkey, Egypt, Nigeria, China, Italy, Algeria, Philippines, Brazil, Bangladesh, Morocco and Japan , accounted for more than a third of the total volume. The Netherlands (4.3 million tonnes) had a minor share of world imports.

By value, the largest wheat importing markets in the world were Egypt ($2.7 billion), Indonesia ($2.6 billion) and Turkey ($2.3 billion), representing together 16% of international purchases. These countries were followed by China, Nigeria, Italy, Algeria, the Philippines, Japan, Brazil, Morocco, Bangladesh and the Netherlands, which accounted for an additional 34%.

About IndexBox

IndexBox is a market research company developing an AI-powered market intelligence platform that helps business analysts find actionable insights and make data-driven decisions. The platform provides data on consumption, production, trade and prices for over 10,000 different products in 200 countries.

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Companies mentioned in the report

Viterra, UG Rusi LLC, Cargill, Bunge, Dreyfus, Wudeli Flour Mill Group, Ardent Mills, Archer Daniels Midland Company, General Mills, Allied Pinnacle Pty Limited, Manildra Milling Pvt Ltd, Acarsan Flour, KORFEZ Flour Mills, George Weston Foods Limited, Hodgson Mill, Mtk Ltd, Vneshtorg-Rus LLC, Vostok-Snab, Diet Prom LLC, TPK Varna, Adascan Grain Corporation, ADM Agri-Industries Company, Agricom International Inc., Agrocorp Processing Ltd., Agri-Tel Grain Limited, Besco Grain ltd.


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